Contents "The internationalist proletarian" n.17
VENEZUELA: THE OIL BUSINESS UNITES THE US AND THE ARMY PARTY
In the early hours of January 3, 2026, the US military bombed a military base in Caracas with 7 explosions while US combat helicopter moved slowly through the skies above Caracas.
A few hours later, the US president announced that he had kidnapped the president of Venezuela and his wife to try them in the US. No mobilization of the Venezuelan army, no response, and no attempt at interception. And that is despite the fact that the US had part of its fleet deployed, claimed to have intervened in Venezuelan territory the week before and the Venezuelan army was in a state of alarm.
In a restrained speech, the – at that time – head of the army (Padrino), without mentioning the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, called for "serenity, common sense, calm" and ended with proclamations in defense of the fatherland. The Minister of the Interior, also a military officer, Diosdado Cabello, also recited the proclamations of defense of the fatherland, without even naming Maduro either. In other words, everything seemed to indicate that the puppet Maduro had been handed over. Subsequent events reinforce this hypothesis.
The US action seeks several objectives
Firstly, it is about imposing hegemonic US access to Venezuelan oil and preventing China from rebuilding the Venezuelan oil industry. Despite the attempts of the US to impose the exclusivity of the business for the US oil companies, led by Chevron, which have been reintroduced in recent years: "in the case of Venezuela, more than 80% of its oil exports are destined for China" (Expansión, 26-12-2025), basically to pay debts. And not only was practically all the oil that US imperialism considers its own going to Chinese imperialism, but Chinese capitalist direct investment in this field was accelerating: "The first floating installation to produce crude oil in a $1 billion project operated by China Concord Resources Corp in Venezuela arrived at Lake Maracaibo (...) The Chinese company, known as CCRC, is increasing production at two oil fields (…) and expects to reach 60.000 barrels a day by the end of next year. (…) under a 20-year production-sharing contract. The firm has sent Chinese personnel specialized in the development of oil fields, with the aim of quickly reopening about 100 oil wells" (La Patilla, 04-09-2025).
And it is not only a matter of taking over the oil business but also of exploiting the rest of the natural resources: "In addition to having the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela has enormous gas fields – the sixth largest globally – ; large gold reserves, the most important in Latin America; iron, ranked twelfth in the world; bauxite, in the fifteenth; and diamonds. (…) Added to this is a significant supply of the so-called 'rare earths', especially coltan and thorium." (El País, 21-12-2025).
Second, it is about reviving the image of the US as a global BULLY through its newly redecorated "war department". In its process of withdrawal, the US cannot maintain sustained conflicts with its own military deployment and has been forced to retreat. But it can act like a mafia-style bully when Israel first eliminates Iran's air defenses, or against a capitalism like Venezuela's that is falling apart, if it has some internal support. Together with the destruction of ships on the high seas, this is a message to those capitalist states in general and Latin American states in particular that dare to resist US capitalism. On the basis of these stage "victories" he tries to mask the limitations and obstacles he encounters in implementing his walled-in retreat, both inside the US (see p. 15) and abroad (see p. 14).
Thirdly, this is a blow by the US specifically aimed at Russia, China, and Iran, for more details on the relations that are to be cut: "strategic association and cooperation agreement between Russia and Venezuela (...) All of the Caribbean country's military technology is mainly of Russian origin (...) Beijing has announced a tariff-free trade agreement with Caracas (...) the 20- year strategic cooperation agreement signed in 2022 with Iran." (La Vanguardia, 15-11-2025).
Who can control the internal situation?
The "opposition" has not been slow to say that it was ready to take power but, very significantly, the president of US imperialism claimed that the leader of the "opposition" did not have the support or respect necessary to lead Venezuelan capitalism.
The reality is that the US cannot invade Venezuela or govern it without the support of the Army Party, which is the one that can maintain control of the situation through its social bases and guarantee business with the US at the same time.
In his subsequent statements, the US president said that the US planned to govern Venezuela until there was a transition to a government that could control the situation aligned with US interests. And this "transition" has not been long in coming.
Without prejudice to the obligatory rhetorical declamations against imperialist aggression, the Army Party has aligned itself with the business with the US and the US has recognized the existing Army Party government in Venezuela as the legal government.
The convenience of maintaining an anti-American political discourse for American businesses to prosper is accepted by the US Secretary of State: "’We will make an assessment based on what they do from now on, not on what they say publicly or what they have done in the past,' Rubio declared" (Financial Times, 04-01-2026). And what they have done is privatize the exploitation of Venezuelan oil: "This Thursday the National Assembly of Venezuela approved a reform to the Organic Law of Hydrocarbons basically aimed at allowing and facilitating national and foreign private companies to participate in oil exploitation (...)" (El Nacional, 30-01-2026). The law allows private companies to technically and operationally manage projects (including in mixed companies), to market crude oil directly paying a royalty of 30% that can be reduced depending on the economic viability of the project, it repeals special contributions when the price of oil is high and a whole series of taxes as well as the mandatory approval by Parliament of oil contracts signed by the Executive.
The US plan for Venezuelan oil
The US plan is for US oil companies to step in to rebuild the energy infrastructure, advancing the money on account of the sales of the oil extracted. Thus, by modernizing infrastructure and increasing production, they could secure heavy crude for their own refineries and sell the rest to the world, making large profits and promising Venezuelans a golden future. The US plan had two main "buts": on the one hand, the Venezuelan state is indebted up to its eyebrows and, on the other, the reference of oil price (Brent) was below 60 dollars per barrel and with a downward tendency.
The US commissioned the companies Vitol and Trafigura to manage the mobilization of Venezuelan oil into a market already overflowing with oil (see page 19). The current volume is small, but could triple: "by the end of the 1990s, (...) The country produced more than 3.2 million barrels a day. Its current daily production [is] just under 1 million barrels (...)" (Bloomberg, 23-01-2026).
Vitol and Trafigura "have been offering shipments to refineries on the US Gulf Coast at discounts to the Brent benchmark price of between $8 and $9 per barrel (...) Given that traders are buying crude from Venezuela's state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA at a price equivalent to Brent minus around $15 per barrel, this suggests the possibility of substantial profits in a sector where trade margins are usually measured in cents, rather than dollars, per barrel. Still, the problem will lie in the details: many of the first shipments have been moved directly to warehouses, where traders will be responsible for financing the oil until they can sell it" (Bloomberg, 25-01-2026).
This means that, if PDVSA sells its oil at a discount of 15 dollars to Brent and if "according to Rystad Energy, Venezuela's estimated equilibrium price ranged between 42 and 56 US dollars per barrel in 2020, with an average of 49.26 dollars per barrel in the Orinoco region" (Incorrys, 07-01-2026), for Orinoco oil to be profitable, Brent has to be at least 49 + 15 = $64 per barrel and, in oils with a lower equilibrium price, at least 42 + 15 = $57 per barrel.
But who will pay the debts?
There are the debts to be settled: "According to estimates cited by Reuters, Venezuela owes around 60,000 million dollars in defaulted bonds. If PDVSA's obligations, bilateral loans and international arbitration awards are included, the total external debt amounts to between 150,000 and 170,000 million dollars, depending on the calculation of accrued interest and court rulings. (…) The universe of Venezuelan creditors is wide and heterogeneous. It includes holders of international bonds – global emerging market funds and funds specializing in distressed debt, known as "vulture funds", companies with favorable arbitration awards and bilateral creditors. Among the latter, China and Russia stand out, which granted millionaire loans" (El Nacional, 20-12-2025).
Repsol announced that it "plans to increase crude oil production in Venezuela by more than 50% this year with the aim of tripling it in three years" (El País, 20-02-2026). Although in this case too, a good part of the oil will be used to pay debts: "Repsol, (...) opens the door to being able to receive billions of euros from this country and thus begin to solve a financial hole that exceeds 4,500 million euros and that grew month by month (...) Repsol, and its partner ENI, are committed to continue supplying gas to PDVSA, Venezuela's state-owned hydrocarbons monopoly. The Government of Venezuela, for its part, is committed to resuming payments to Repsol and ENI for that gas. As in recent years, it will pay it in kind, that is, in oil, which Repsol will be able to take out of the country and take to other countries" (Expansión, 14-03-2026).
A possible additional outlet for Venezuelan oil is India, which could thus reduce its dependence on Russia and please the US. However, it is not so easy: "(...) it faces the debt accumulated in unpaid dividends that Indian state-owned companies claim from Caracas, 1,000 million dollars to pay (...). A shipment destined for the Gulf of Mexico is settled in dollars within a week, while a shipment to India involves 45 days of transport and the financial risk that the payment will be withheld to pay off the debt" (Banca y Negocios, 31-01-2026).
Of course, a sudden shock in the circulation of world oil that would put out of circulation a part of the oil that is cheaper to produce and cause prices to rise (see page 20) could generate a more favorable situation for the US plans to sell Venezuelan oil.
The big lie of socialism in Venezuela
But returning to the question of who will pay the debts, the harsh reality is that the debts of Venezuelan capitalism – as long as capitalism subsists – can only be paid with the overexploitation of the Venezuelan proletariat. As long as capitalism subsists in Venezuela (although some and others falsely dress it up as socialism), the only fate for the working class is the exploitation of the commodity labor power, in order to obtain surplus value as the only source of profit.
The great victory of the Venezuelan bourgeoisie – both the ruling party and the "opposition" – has been to identify the Army Party with socialism and communism. It is an imperative for the working class to eliminate this BIG LIE. In Venezuela there is no socialism, there is CAPITALISM. Capitalism is based on wage labor, in which our labor power is just another commodity and has a price: wages. This is why capitalism inevitably means exploitation and hunger for the working class. No change of parliamentary government is going to mean a real change for the working class under capitalism. The capitalist state is at the service of capital, whoever rules, whoever governs.
For the resumption of the class struggle
This is the reality that the Venezuelan working class and proletariat live and face, theoretically disarmed and without a class-based organization that serves as an instrument for the struggle for better working conditions and wages. The working class will not be able to fight even for its immediate demands if we do not break with the bourgeois policy that influences and directs the entire trade union apparatus, breaking with its organizational control, tending to form organizations of class economic struggle independent of parliamentarism, fighting the policy of submission or solidarity to the national or corporate economy, fighting and unmasking the parliamentary democratic regime as a classic instrument of domination of the dictatorship of capital. We need to recover a program of revolutionary overcoming of capitalism, only in this way can we fight for better labor and social conditions while preparing the conditions for the abolition of the slavery of wage labor.